This Australian-first research has built an evidence base for examining how cumulative changes in complex modern food systems can impact on the fruit, vegetables, meat, grains and milk that ends up on our tables. Rapid climate change and concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been assumed in all scenarios.
In the project, we created and projected three possible food supply scenarios to 2060, factoring in exports, imports, climate change, food production practices, fuel and water use, waste, environmental awareness, population growth and economic growth.
The three scenarios examined in the project are:
Adjustment - Production of food is focused on getting the highest return, with land preservation a low priority. Food is more likely to be exported for top dollar than reserved for locals. If we don‟t produce enough, food is imported from wherever in the world it can be efficiently and cheaply produced.
Control - Allocation of land and resources is nationally monitored and carefully managed by governments to seek food and energy security from domestic supplies.
Do it Yourself - Food production and distribution relies on a series of networks, with greater interaction between consumers and producers, increasing diversity of products and social pride in "local food‟. Innovation and experimentation are encouraged. Great environmental awareness and rapid greenhouse gas emissions reduction.
The full report and a shorter summary version are available for download below.
 Food Supply Scenarios - Full.pdf | [ ] | 7073 Kb |
| Food Supply Scenarios - Summary.pdf | [ ] | 910 Kb |